By Prof Ujjwal K Chowdhury
New Scenario in South Asia : With the change of guard in Bangladesh through a mass movement to oust the Sheikh Haseena government, widely perceived to be an authoritarian one lacking in legitimacy due to opposition boycotted election in January 2024, an interim government of professionals and retired bureaucrats along with a few youth leaders has come to power. There is now a renewed interest in Bangladesh, echoed also in Nepal and Sri Lanka, for a renewed attempt to relaunch SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) that was once launched with a lot of fanfare and has been dormant for quite some time now.
SAARC Challenges: SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) faces several challenges, primarily driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly between India and Pakistan. Key issues include:
Geopolitical Rivalries: Ongoing India-Pakistan conflicts, especially over Kashmir, have resulted in stalled cooperation, as political disagreements often disrupt SAARC's agendas and meetings. The rivalry between India and Pakistan is perhaps the most significant obstacle to SAARC’s functioning. The two countries have been at odds over Kashmir and other issues for decades. Their inability to resolve bilateral disputes has often resulted in the postponement or cancellation of SAARC summits, such as the 2016 summit in Pakistan, which was boycotted by India after the Uri attack. This tension paralyzes SAARC’s ability to make unanimous decisions. SAARC operates on a consensus-based model, meaning even one country's opposition can block agreements. India’s refusal to engage with Pakistan in some instances (e.g., after cross-border terrorism events) has disrupted SAARC activities, slowing progress on key initiatives like trade liberalization under SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area).
Economic Disparities: Member countries have varying economic sizes and development levels, making consensus on trade agreements or development projects difficult. The economic imbalance between SAARC members is stark. India’s GDP dwarfs that of other SAARC nations, and its political weight allows it to assert influence over regional affairs. Smaller nations like Nepal and Bhutan often rely heavily on India for trade and connectivity, giving India leverage in negotiations. For example, India’s influence is seen in regional projects like the BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal) initiative. While this sub-regional grouping aims at connectivity and cooperation, it effectively sidelines SAARC and highlights India's growing preference for alternative platforms when SAARC stalls due to bilateral conflicts.
Bilateral Issues Overshadowing Regional Goals: Bilateral conflicts between member nations often take precedence over collective regional progress, limiting SAARC’s effectiveness. This includes territorial conflict between India and Pakistan, and water related conflict between India and Bangladesh, among a few others.
Internal Political Instability: Several SAARC countries face internal political challenges that undermine their ability to focus on regional cooperation. Political instability in countries like Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and even Nepal has diverted attention away from SAARC initiatives and weakened commitments to collective goals. For example, Afghanistan's political turmoil following the Taliban takeover has created uncertainty about the country's role in SAARC. While SAARC emphasizes economic cooperation, political crises in member countries limit the time and resources available for regional collaboration.
Lack of Political Will: There is a lack of consistent political commitment among members to prioritize SAARC over national or bilateral interests. India plays a crucial role as the largest economy and a dominant political force in the region.
India’s Crucial Role for SAARC Success : While India has expressed commitment to regional cooperation, it often prioritizes bilateral and sub-regional forums like BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative) when SAARC falters due to conflicts with Pakistan. India's leadership could steer SAARC forward if geopolitical tensions, particularly with Pakistan, are managed diplomatically, enabling smoother collaboration.
To put on record, India’s "Neighbourhood First" policy focuses on strengthening bilateral ties with smaller South Asian nations like Bhutan, Nepal, and Bangladesh. India’s engagement in initiatives like BIMSTEC and the International Solar Alliance (ISA) shows a strategic shift toward platforms where progress isn’t impeded by the India-Pakistan stalemate. BIMSTEC excludes Pakistan, allowing India to lead regional efforts on trade, connectivity, and counter-terrorism without bilateral tensions.
India is the largest economy in SAARC, accounting for approximately 80% of the region's GDP. Its economic dominance allows it to take the lead in regional initiatives, but it also creates imbalances. Smaller countries, including Bangladesh, often rely heavily on India for trade and infrastructure development. India’s leadership in regional projects like SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) has promoted trade liberalization and economic growth within SAARC.
India could use its economic power to foster greater integration by reducing non-tariff barriers and providing more access to its markets for smaller SAARC members. This would not only benefit smaller economies like Nepal and Bhutan but also strengthen SAARC as a regional economic bloc. Conversely, if India continues to favour bilateral or sub-regional initiatives like BIMSTEC over SAARC, it could further marginalize the organization.
India’s role in SAARC is complex. On one hand, its leadership and economic strength are essential for the organization’s success. On the other hand, India’s ongoing conflicts with Pakistan, combined with its preference for alternative platforms, have hindered SAARC’s effectiveness. For SAARC to move forward, India and Pakistan would need to depoliticize regional cooperation and work towards resolving their bilateral issues. Until then, India is likely to continue prioritizing more functional sub-regional and multilateral platforms, leaving SAARC largely stagnant.
India-Bangladesh Bilateral Relations and SAARC Possibilities: India and Bangladesh play crucial roles in shaping the operational effectiveness of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation). Their bilateral relations and individual contributions significantly influence the progress of regional cooperation. Analysing their roles provides insights into the challenges SAARC faces and the opportunities for cooperation.
Strong Bilateral Relations: The relationship between India and Bangladesh is often seen as a positive example of Bilateral Cooperation as a Model for Regional Unity within SAARC. Their cooperation on trade, security, water-sharing, and connectivity shows the potential of SAARC to foster meaningful collaboration between its members. For example, the signing of the Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) in 2015 resolved a long-standing border dispute between the two nations, underscoring the importance of diplomacy and mutual trust. By demonstrating how historical and political issues can be overcome, India and Bangladesh set a precedent for resolving disputes within the SAARC framework. If other SAARC members, particularly India and Pakistan, could emulate the India-Bangladesh model of addressing contentious issues diplomatically, it could foster greater cooperation within the organization. Such diplomatic efforts could strengthen regional ties, enhance trade, and improve collective responses to shared challenges like climate change and terrorism.
Security Cooperation: India plays a pivotal role in regional security through its fight against terrorism, border security, and military cooperation. Bangladesh has been a key ally in these efforts, particularly through its crackdown on insurgent groups operating along its border with India. This cooperation has enhanced regional stability, which is crucial for SAARC’s broader goals. For example, the 2015 Coastal Shipping Agreement between India and Bangladesh improved maritime security and economic trade between the two nations, setting an example for similar agreements within SAARC to address shared security concerns like piracy, trafficking, and smuggling.
Bangladesh: The Bridge Between India and Smaller SAARC Nations. Bangladesh has consistently advocated for regional cooperation and integration. As a mid-sized economy, it often acts as a bridge between India and smaller SAARC members, ensuring that regional initiatives don’t solely reflect India's interests. Bangladesh's leadership in promoting SAARC's SAFTA agreement and energy cooperation projects has helped maintain momentum even when larger powers, like India and Pakistan, are at odds. For example, in a situation where India and Pakistan are at loggerheads, Bangladesh could mediate to keep the focus on economic cooperation within SAARC. For instance, if Bangladesh encourages SAARC members to prioritize climate change or poverty alleviation—issues that affect all members irrespective of geopolitical rivalries—it could rejuvenate the organization’s relevance.
Leadership in Climate Initiatives: As one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, Bangladesh has taken a leading role in advocating for regional cooperation on environmental issues. The SAARC Disaster Management Centre is an example of an institution where Bangladesh has played a pivotal role. It emphasizes collective response to natural disasters, a pressing issue for South Asian countries prone to floods, cyclones, and earthquakes. For example, Bangladesh’s promotion of regional climate resilience initiatives can push other SAARC members to collaborate on issues like coastal protection, disaster preparedness, and sustainable development. By linking climate resilience to economic development, Bangladesh could make SAARC a more relevant forum for all members.
Challenges Facing India-Bangladesh Cooperation within SAARC : India’s Bilateralism Over Regionalism: While India is a key player in SAARC, its growing preference for bilateral and sub-regional forums like BIMSTEC (which includes Bangladesh but excludes Pakistan) weakens SAARC’s cohesion. Bangladesh is often caught in the middle of this tension, as it benefits from bilateral relations with India but also wants a strong and effective SAARC. As a future possible scenario, India could leverage its bilateral relations with Bangladesh to push for broader cooperation within SAARC, using Bangladesh’s diplomatic position to bridge gaps with other members, including Pakistan. If India prioritizes sub-regional groupings, however, Bangladesh might have to navigate a difficult balancing act, trying to maintain its leadership role in SAARC while aligning with India’s broader strategic objectives.
The Rohingya Crisis: Bangladesh has sought SAARC’s help in addressing the Rohingya refugee crisis, which has placed a significant strain on its resources. However, India’s reluctance to support Bangladesh’s efforts for regional intervention on this issue shows the limitations of SAARC in handling sensitive political matters. The organization’s inability to address the Rohingya crisis highlights the lack of a unified regional approach to human rights and refugee issues. If SAARC fails to address pressing regional issues like the Rohingya crisis, it could lose its relevance as a platform for addressing human rights concerns. India’s greater involvement in such humanitarian crises could enhance SAARC’s credibility, while inaction could drive countries like Bangladesh to seek alternative forums for support.
Possible Scenarios: India and Bangladesh have the potential to play effective roles in SAARC, but their influence is shaped by different dynamics. India’s economic and political dominance allows it to steer the organization, but its preference for bilateralism can undermine regional cooperation. Bangladesh, as a bridge between smaller countries and India, could facilitate greater unity by focusing on non-political issues like climate change and disaster management. For SAARC to thrive, India and Bangladesh need to work together, ensuring that the organization remains relevant in an increasingly fragmented regional landscape.
Possible scenarios include: 1. India leveraging its bilateral ties with Bangladesh to push for broader SAARC initiatives. 2. Bangladesh mediating between SAARC members to depoliticize cooperation on economic and environmental issues. 3. Both countries continuing to strengthen their cooperation, which could serve as a model for resolving other regional disputes. If these roles are effectively managed, India and Bangladesh could help transform SAARC into a more dynamic and cooperative regional organization.
Long Term Vision for SAARC: The most optimistic yet viable long-term vision for SAARC that the region learns from the unification of die-hard rivals and geo-political enemies like East and West Germany, and how, later Germany and more than 20 European nations have come together to form European Union, with its Parliament, Euro as common currency, easy in international trade, commerce and flow of labour and tourists. All the nations have benefitted from this over the last one decade. United Kingdom, as situation now reveals, was mistaken to have left the EU through Brexit.
The author is Vice President, International Relations and Global Marketing of Washington University of Science & Technology (WUST), Virginia, US.
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